It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against Manchester United.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
